A magnificent field has been assembled for Saturday night’s $67,000 Group 2 Cranbourne Cup Final – which is scheduled to run at 8:22pm – and is the first Country Cup of 2016. Below are my thoughts on each runner.
1. BLUE REVOLVER: I think this guy is the value in the race. He hasn’t won from Box 1 before but he has run nice races when drawn the rails. I believe he will settle 2nd or 3rd on the rail at the first turn and from there I think he will run a terrific race. Currently at $8.50 with TAB Fixed Odds I think he is definitely worth an each way ticket Heat Replay
2. SHARED EQUITY: Winner of last year’s Ballarat Cup, she was a really good run in her heat although no match for Secret Spell. She draws perfectly here to utilise her early speed and is clearly one of the leading chances. Heat Replay
3. SECRET SPELL: Beautifully drawn here. The two flies early and the four will steer wide so he should get plenty of room to move early. I think she will settle in the first 2 or 3. She then should have clear running throughout and I think she will win. She is rated at $5.50, which I think is a wonderful price and as the fastest heat winner I thought she would be a lot closer to favourite. Heat Replay
4. RARE PEARL: An astonishing run in his heat coming from off the pace and going via the harness track on the corner, he was devastating attacking the line. Drawn horribly here for him, I think he is going to need a lot of favours getting to the outside. If he gets clear running I think he is a big show but I just feel in this class he is going to need too much go his way. Heat Replay
5. ABOVE ALL: Last year’s Silver Chief winner has drawn badly here. He isn’t the best beginner and the dog on his inside likes to stay off the rail so I don’t think he can get over, which he probably needs too. On talent alone he is definitely a chance, but I think he has too many issues to overcome here. Heat Replay
6. COSMIC OWL: A monster run in his heat coming from a long way from the lead before just missing against Unlawful Entry. He, like a few others, will need plenty to go his way early but with an unimpeded run he can figure in the placings. I think he would need to produce a career best performance to win. Heat Replay
7. TOMMY BRISLANE: On the comeback trail, he returned to his brilliant best with a strong win in his heat. He does possess early speed but to win he would need to cross to the rail. There is some nice speed drawn inside him so the key to him will be the run to first turn. He was a strong winner in his heat so if he did find the lead he would take some running down. Heat Replay
8. UNLAWFUL ENTRY: Group 1 Hobart Thousand winner who is the Tab Fixed Odds favourite here at $2.20. He walked out in his heat before he got plenty of luck, but he won in super fashion. He is going to need to be right on top of his game to win from this draw but he is the class runner of the race. Personally I think he is a little under the odds but he did win the Group 2 Great Chase from this draw back in October. Heat Replay
RESERVES
9. CUT LOOSE MAX: 2014 Ready to Race Auction Graduate who would be a fairy-tale story if he could win. He certainly is capable but he would need to draw well. Heat Replay
10. STARLIGHT JACK: Led and was grabbed in the shadows in his heat. Could give some cheek if he gained a start. Heat Replay
SUMMARY:
It shapes as an extremely intriguing race. The way the Box Draw has shaped up I think Secret Spell (3) looks the one to get the run of the race. She has fast beginner Shared Equity drawn inside her in box 2, to toe him forward and with Rare Pearl in box 4 steering off the rail giving her clear running I think she will lob the prime position. Being a Hume Cup winner over 600m Secret Spell is going to be powerful at the end. I think she is terrific value at $5.50 and for mine should be shorter. Main danger for mine is Blue Revolver (1). He looks ideally placed to get the gun run on the back of the speed and he is the knockout chance. You certainly can’t leave out Unlawful Entry (8), as he is the class runner of the field, and Shared Equity (2) is the other strong winning chance as she looks the early leader in the race. The fascinating runner is Rare Pearl, who doesn’t draw well but has freakish talent.
MY CRANBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS:
3-1-8-2
HOW I’D SPEND $20 ON THE CRANBOURNE CUP:
$10 win: Secret Spell (Number 3)
$10 Box First 4: 1-2-3-8 gives you 41.66%
